In December 2009 the world gathers in Copenhagen to finalize the most important international treaty in history.
The objective of UN Framework Convention, accepted by most nations in 1992, was to stabilize greenhouse gases at a level avoiding dangerous human-made climate change. Since then, growth of the principal greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide from the burning of coal, oil and gas, actually accelerated.
Carbon dioxide emitted by human activity into the atmosphere occurs primarily from the burning of fossil fuels. CO2 is a “greenhouse gas” that traps the sun’s heat, thus warming the planet. The greater the concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, the greater the energy imbalance on Earth – absorbing more energy than it releases – and thus more warming.
However, the Earth climate is a complex system in which interactions can lead to amplifying effects that can lead to so-called climate “tipping points” or boundaries which once crossed can catalyze cascades of non-linear, abrupt changes or slow, long term, irreversible changes beyond human control – the point of no return.
This is very important:
1. Tipping Level
- Climate forcing (greenhouse gas amount reaches a point such that no additional forcing is required for large climate change and impacts
2. Point of No Return
- Climate system reaches a point with unstoppable irreversible climate impacts (irreversible on a practical time scale) Example: disintegration of large ice sheet
To avoid dangerous climate change and the point of no return, the new scientific conclusions say that 350 parts per million (ppm) of atmospheric CO2 is the upper limit of the “safe zone” for life on this planet as we know it and it should not be transgressed. In other words, 350 is a tipping point.
Global atmospheric CO2 ppm today stands at 385 ppm, increasing by 2 ppm per year. We have gone too far. We are beyond the “safe zone” and as long as we remain beyond it, one cannot rule out catastrophic changes to the Earth and its habitants. We cannot be certain that we can avoid reaching a point of no return. We are on shaky ground, very shaky ground. The science is not.
The problem is the world negotiations are forcused on the wrong target.